The odds
as of Oct 25, 14:21 UTC- Maintain current rate 70% +0.5
- Cut 1-25bps 12% −16
- Hike 1-25bps 1.5% —
- Cut more than 25bps 1% —
- Hike more than 25bps 1% —
Traded today$15K
Traded in all$28K
Favourite, 7 days+23 pts
Maintain current rate, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 21: 70% · Oct 22: 70% · Oct 23: 70% · Oct 24: 70% · Oct 25: 63%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Maintain current rate; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the Bank of Israel takes the action of maintain current rate at its November Monetary Committee meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "Maintain current rate" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings.
Settlement sources: Bank of Israel; Trading Economics
See it on Kalshi ↗