The odds
as of Oct 9, 05:28 UTC- Above 100,000 97% —
- Above 105,000 93% —
- Above 110,000 61% —
- Above 115,000 14% −12
- Above 120,000 7.5% —
- Above 125,000 5.5% —
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$13K
Traded in all$26K
Favourite, 7 daysunch
Above 100,000, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 2: 97% · Oct 3: 97% · Oct 4: 97% · Oct 5: 97% · Oct 6: 97% · Oct 7: 97% · Oct 8: 97% · Oct 9: 97%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above 100,000; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If California’s total number of new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in calendar year 2026 is above 100,000, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the calendar-year total number of housing units authorized, not the number of permit documents issued. It includes units in single-family and multifamily structures. Resolution uses the first U.S. Census Bureau state-level release containing complete January–December 2026 data; subsequent revisions do not affect resolution.
Settlement sources: U.S. Census Bureau
See it on Kalshi ↗