The odds
as of Oct 5, 13:33 UTC- At least 14.00M bpd 87% —
- At least 14.10M bpd 46% −1
- At least 14.25M bpd 17% —
- At least 14.40M bpd 7.5% —
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$509
Traded in all$30K
Favourite, 7 days−5 pts
At least 14.00M bpd, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 92% · Sep 29: 91% · Sep 30: 91% · Oct 1: 87% · Oct 2: 87% · Oct 3: 87% · Oct 4: 88% · Oct 5: 87%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, At least 14.00M bpd; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the U.S. produces at least 14.00 million barrels of oil per day, between Issuance and before January 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. For the purposes of this market, 1,000 thousand barrels per day = 1.00M bpd.
Settlement sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration; The New York Times; the Associated Press; Bloomberg News; Reuters; Axios; Politico; Semafor; The Information; The Washington Post; The Wall Street Journal; ABC; CBS; CNN; Fox News; MSNBC; NBC
See it on Kalshi ↗