The odds
as of Oct 25, 02:33 UTC- Above 150 93% −4
- Above 160 88% —
- Above 170 82% −2
- Above 180 66% —
- Above 185 56% —
- Above 190 49% −1
- Above 195 39% —
- Above 200 27% —
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$25K
Traded in all$29K
Favourite, 7 days+2.5 pts
Above 150, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 23: 94% · Oct 24: 95% · Oct 25: 93%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above 150; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the number of transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 150 from Oct 26, 2026 to Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The total is calculated by summing daily counts from Oct 26, 2026 to Nov 1, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.
Settlement sources: IMF PortWatch
See it on Kalshi ↗