The odds
as of Oct 5, 20:27 UTC- Above 2K 3% −12
- Above 5K 3% −4
- Above 7K 5% −4
- Above 10K 4% −4
- Above 12K 2% −3
- Above 15K 4% −4
- Above 20K 4% −4
- Above 25K 4% −1
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$5K
Traded in all$43K
Favourite, 7 days−64 pts
Above 7K, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 29: 94% · Sep 30: 94% · Oct 1: 80% · Oct 2: 12% · Oct 3: 7.5% · Oct 4: 5.5% · Oct 5: 5%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above 7K; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If How To Quit Smoking by Dominic Fike has above 7K Album Equivalent Units during the October 09, 2026 - October 15, 2026, tracking week, then the market resolves to Yes. IMPORTANT INFORMATION: This event pertains to the U.S. and will resolve based on the value reported by Luminate’s API as of 10:00 AM ET on the Sunday immediately following the October 09, 2026 - October 15, 2026 tracking week. Luminate Data, LLC is a neutral provider of market metrics which does not endorse, verify or participate in any way in the outcomes of any prediction market.
Settlement sources: Luminate
See it on Kalshi ↗