The odds
as of Oct 5, 08:42 UTC- Before Jan 1, 2031 83% −1
- Before Jan 1, 2030 82% —
- Before Jan 1, 2029 79% —
- Before Jul 1, 2028 76% —
- Before Oct 1, 2028 76% —
- Before Apr 1, 2028 73% —
- Before Jan 1, 2028 63% −1
- Before Oct 1, 2027 49% +1
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$3K
Traded in all$202K
Favourite, 7 days+2 pts
Before Jan 1, 2031, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 83% · Sep 29: 83% · Sep 30: 83% · Oct 1: 83% · Oct 2: 83% · Oct 3: 83% · Oct 4: 83% · Oct 5: 83%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Before Jan 1, 2031; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If any company (public or private) officially announces that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) after market issuance and before Jan 1, 2031, then the market resolves to Yes. To qualify, the announcement must explicitly state that the company has achieved, attained, reached, or developed Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), or that it has achieved, attained, reached, or developed “AGI.” Statements that describe “AGI-like,” “AGI-level,” “near-AGI,” or “toward AGI” systems without explicitly stating that the company has achieved/attained/reached/developed AGI do not qualify. For purposes of this market, a “company” includes any publicly traded company or any privately held company whose existence and corporate identity is verifiable and whose financing/valuation or corporate profile is covered by at least two of the listed major business news sources.
Settlement sources: The Washington Post; ABC; CBS; CNN; Fox Business; MSNBC; NBC; the Securities and Exchange Commission EDGAR database; The New York Times; The Wall Street Journal; Bloomberg News; Reuters; the Associated Press; Financial Times; CNBC; Yahoo Finance; MarketWatch; Axios; Politico; The Information
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