The odds
as of Nov 7, 19:13 UTC- Chance of yes <1% —
Traded today$3K
Traded in all$90K
Yes, 7 days−0.8 pts
Yes, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 30: 2.4% · Oct 31: 1.6% · Nov 2: 1.6% · Nov 3: 1.6% · Nov 4: 1.6% · Nov 5: 1.6% · Nov 6: <1% · Nov 7: <1%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for wordIf Israel and Qatar normalize diplomatic relations before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. The agreement must be ratified as before Jan 1, 2027 to be included within the Payout Criterion. Examples of agreements that would be encompassed by the Payout Criterion include the agreements signed in 2020 and 2021 between Israel and Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, and Morocco.
Settlement sources: The New York Times
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