The odds
as of Oct 7, 22:22 UTC- Above $4.70 28% —
- Above $4.90 25% −2
- Above $5.10 24% —
- Above $5.30 14% —
- Above $5.50 8% —
- Above $5.70 11% —
- Above $5.90 2% —
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$1K
Traded in all$45K
Favourite, 7 days−4.5 pts
Above $4.70, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 30: 32% · Oct 1: 32% · Oct 2: 24% · Oct 3: 29% · Oct 4: 20% · Oct 6: 27% · Oct 7: 24%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above $4.70; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If average regular gas prices for Florida are strictly greater than $4.70 by Dec 31, 2026 according to AAA, the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement sources: AAA
See it on Kalshi ↗