The odds
as of Oct 5, 11:25 UTC- Above -25,000 92% +1
- Above 0 79% —
- Above 10,000 79% —
- Above 20,000 93% +24
- Above 30,000 68% —
- Above 40,000 60% —
- Above 50,000 54% —
- Above 60,000 61% +4
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$507
Traded in all$29K
Favourite, 7 days+18 pts
Above 20,000, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 74% · Sep 29: 74% · Sep 30: 74% · Oct 1: 74% · Oct 2: 61% · Oct 3: 61% · Oct 4: 69% · Oct 5: 66%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above 20,000; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the increase in total non-farm payroll employment is above 20000 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The market closes at 8:29 AM ET on the expected date of the data release.
Settlement sources: BLS
See it on Kalshi ↗