The odds
as of Oct 5, 08:42 UTC- Katie Hobbs 90% +1
- Andy Biggs 12% −2
Traded today$4K
Traded in all$628K
Favourite, 7 days+1 pts
Katie Hobbs, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 89% · Sep 29: 88% · Sep 30: 88% · Oct 1: 89% · Oct 2: 89% · Oct 3: 89% · Oct 4: 90% · Oct 5: 90%
The same question on Polymarket
Two venues, two sets of traders, sometimes two slightly different rules — read both before comparing. Polymarket's number is as of Oct 5, 08:42 UTC.
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Katie Hobbs; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If a representative of the Democratic party is inaugurated as the governor of Arizona pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
Settlement sources: Arizona Secretary of State
See it on Kalshi ↗