The odds
as of Oct 5, 19:24 UTC- ↑ 7.50% 76% +16
- ↓ 6.50% 16% —
- ↓ 6.25% 13% —
- ↓ 6.00% 4.5% −1
- ↓ 5.50% 3% —
- ↓ 5.90% 2.5% −0.5
- ↓ 5.70% <1% —
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$716
Traded in all$97K
Favourite, 7 days+63 pts
↑ 7.50%, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceSep 28: 13% · Sep 29: 13% · Sep 30: 43% · Oct 1: 64% · Oct 2: 61% · Oct 3: 63% · Oct 4: 62% · Oct 5: 76%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve to "Yes" if, for any week ending on or before December 31, 2026, the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage (interest rate %) is equal to or above the listed rate, according to the Freddie Mac weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market will be Freddie Mac — specifically, the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage rates published through the weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, which can be viewed at https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms.
This market will resolve as soon as the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage is equal to or greater than the listed price, or once data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
Note: All published weekly levels of the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage will be treated as final. Revisions to previously published data will not be considered.
See it on Polymarket ↗