The odds
as of Oct 5, 07:48 UTC- December 31, 2027 18% +4.5
- December 31, 2026 6.5% —
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$8K
Traded in all$597K
Favourite, 7 days−7.5 pts
December 31, 2027, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceOct 2: 14% · Oct 3: 14% · Oct 4: 12% · Oct 5: 18%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
See it on Polymarket ↗