Moving
Raman's LA margin vs. Talarico's Texas margin? Talarico by 5-10 5% ▼−85Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City Nottingham Forest 94% ▲+73Nottingham Forest FC vs. Manchester City FC Nottingham Forest FC 93% ▲+72Leganes vs Albacete Albacete 96% ▲+69Kansas City vs Angel City FC Tie 90% ▲+69CD Leganés vs. Albacete Balompié Albacete Balompié 95% ▲+69Morehead St. vs Marist Morehead St. 76% ▲+61University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Novemb… 49.0 to 51.9 75% ▲+52CA Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza vs. CS Independie… CA Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza 81% ▲+52Mendoza vs Rivadavia Mendoza 80% ▲+51Robert Morris vs Duquesne Duquesne 30% ▼−50Riga FC vs. FC RFS Draw (Riga FC vs. FC RFS) 96% ▲+48Artnak vs Bigun Bor Artnak 96% ▲+46Osasuna vs Bilbao Tie 70% ▲+43
PolymarketCloses January 1, 2027

Will Russia enter Stavky by...?

The market puts it at 13% — a long shot, about one in 8 — on Polymarket, as of Nov 7, 19:13 UTC. It's down 9 points in the last 24 hours.

Yes 13% ▼ 9 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Nov 7, 19:13 UTC
  • Chance of yes 13% −9
Traded today$791
Traded in all$72K
Yes, 7 days−3 pts

Yes, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Oct 30Nov 712%

Oct 31: 18% · Nov 1: 29% · Nov 2: 23% · Nov 3: 22% · Nov 4: 24% · Nov 5: 18% · Nov 6: 24% · Nov 7: 12%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Stavky, Donetsk Oblast, (49.048958° N, 37.829063° E) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
See it on Polymarket ↗

World

More markets like this

All →