Moving
Outland Trophy Winner Tristan Bounds 88% ▲+87How high will the 2-year US Treasury yield get in … 4.93% or above 88% ▲+86Third-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of October? Meta 5.9% ▼−86Top AI model this month gemini-4-argon-high 3% ▼−84Second-best AI Agent Lab end of October? OpenAI 12% ▼−81St. Louis City SC vs. Portland Timbers Portland Timbers 96% ▲+73Who will be the next President of the Federal Rese… Michael Faulkender 95% ▲+72Saint Louis vs Portland Portland 96% ▲+72Grammy Winner: Best Contemporary Country Album Dandelion 75% ▲+70Which countries will qualify for LA28 men's lacros… Ireland 77% ▲+70Dallas vs Columbus Columbus 96% ▲+65Toronto Nationals vs Mississauga Skyhawks Mississauga Skyhawks 97% ▲+64Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union: Correct Score Draw 0-0 68% ▲+64Remo vs Botafogo Remo 89% ▲+55
PolymarketCloses December 31, 2026

Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by...?

The market puts it at 20% — about 2 in ten — on Polymarket, as of Oct 29, 02:24 UTC. It's down 9 points in the last 24 hours.

Yes 20% ▼ 9 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Oct 29, 02:24 UTC
  • Chance of yes 20% −9
Traded today$865
Traded in all$146K
Yes, 7 days−7.5 pts

Yes, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Oct 21Oct 2920%

Oct 22: 27% · Oct 23: 32% · Oct 24: 27% · Oct 25: 30% · Oct 26: 28% · Oct 27: 28% · Oct 28: 21% · Oct 29: 20%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 47.612850° N, 36.062680° E in Huliaipilske, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Huliaipilske1.png Intersection Location in Huliaipilske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Huliaipilske2.png Huliaipilske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Huliaipilske3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/MyKqBywUGcMihVGJ8 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
See it on Polymarket ↗

World

More markets like this

All →