The odds
as of Oct 8, 15:26 UTC- Chance of yes 12% —
Traded today$62K
Traded in all$3.5M
Yes, 7 days−1 pts
Yes, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceOct 1: 13% · Oct 2: 12% · Oct 3: 12% · Oct 4: 12% · Oct 5: 12% · Oct 6: 12% · Oct 7: 12% · Oct 8: 12%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
See it on Polymarket ↗