The odds
as of Oct 5, 10:30 UTC- Chance of yes 13% −4
Traded today$640
Traded in all$189K
Yes, 7 days−3.5 pts
Yes, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceSep 28: 18% · Sep 29: 17% · Sep 30: 17% · Oct 1: 17% · Oct 2: 17% · Oct 3: 16% · Oct 4: 13% · Oct 5: 13%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordOn April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
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