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PolymarketCloses November 4, 2026

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?

No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate leads at 65% (about 7 in ten) on Polymarket, as of Oct 18, 23:19 UTC. It's up 1 points in the last 24 hours.

No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate 65% ▲ 1 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Oct 18, 23:19 UTC
  • No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate 65% +1
  • No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate 32% —
  • Agreement + Oil < $80; D Senate 2.4% —
  • Agreement + Oil < $80; R Senate 1.6% —
Traded today$27K
Traded in all$250K
Favourite, 7 days+5 pts

No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Oct 12Oct 1865%

Oct 12: 62% · Oct 13: 62% · Oct 14: 62% · Oct 15: 62% · Oct 16: 62% · Oct 17: 64% · Oct 18: 65%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
The rules for this market are this: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/usp.pdf.
See it on Polymarket ↗

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