The odds
as of Oct 5, 07:48 UTC- Dong Jun 8.2% —
- Li Xi 4.9% —
- Wang Huning 4.3% —
- Wang Yi 3.6% —
- Zhao Leji 3.3% +0.6
- Zhang Shengmin 3% −2
- Ding Xuexiang 2.8% —
- Cai Qi 1.7% —
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$605
Traded in all$242K
Favourite, 7 daysunch
Dong Jun, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceSep 28: 8.3% · Sep 29: 7.8% · Sep 30: 8.3% · Oct 1: 7.9% · Oct 2: 8% · Oct 3: 8.1% · Oct 4: 8.1% · Oct 5: 8.2%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
1) The listed individual is removed or resigns from their primary political post or from their position, if any, on the Chinese Politburo or its standing committee, with a consensus of credible reporting describing the resignation/removal as a “purge”, “ousting”, or similar language, or to have presumably or definitively occurred as a result of corruption, bribery, other criminal wrongdoing, or a lack of political favor.
2) The listed individual is expelled from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
Qualifying announcements and reporting of a purge before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal/expulsion goes into effect.
A listed individual leaving office at the end of a regularly scheduled term, or being removed/resigning from office without a consensus of credible reporting describing the resignation/removal as a “purge”, “ousting”, or similar language, or to have presumably or definitively occurred as a result of corruption, bribery, other criminal wrongdoing, or a lack of political favor, will not qualify.
The resolution sources for this market will be information from the Chinese Government and a consensus of credible reporting.
See it on Polymarket ↗