The odds
as of Oct 5, 10:30 UTC- Venezuela 16% −1.5
- Lebanon 11% +1.5
- Saudi Arabia 5.7% —
- Tunisia 5.5% —
- Pakistan 4.5% —
- Syria 4.5% —
- Iraq 4.3% —
- Indonesia 4.3% —
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$911
Traded in all$825K
Favourite, 7 days+5 pts
Venezuela, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceSep 28: 12% · Sep 29: 17% · Sep 30: 14% · Oct 1: 14% · Oct 2: 14% · Oct 3: 17% · Oct 4: 16% · Oct 5: 16%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
See it on Polymarket ↗