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PolymarketCloses January 1, 2027

Which company has #1 AI model end of December? (Style Control On)

Google leads at 49% (about 5 in ten) on Polymarket, as of Oct 31, 09:15 UTC. It's down 4.5 points in the last 24 hours.

Google 49% ▼ 4.5 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Oct 31, 09:15 UTC
  • Google 49% −4.5
  • Anthropic 32% −1.5
  • StepFun 4% +2.4
  • MiniMax 3.9% +1.4
  • Meta 3.6% −0.5
  • Xiaomi 2.5% —
  • Z.ai 2.4% —
  • OpenAI 2.4% −1
Traded today$11K
Traded in all$26K
Favourite, 7 days−3 pts

Google, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Oct 23Oct 3149%

Oct 24: 52% · Oct 25: 47% · Oct 26: 42% · Oct 27: 41% · Oct 28: 56% · Oct 29: 54% · Oct 30: 47% · Oct 31: 49%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
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