Moving
PolymarketCloses November 1, 2026

Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?

Meta leads at 20% (about 2 in ten) on Polymarket, as of Oct 5, 08:42 UTC. It's up 3.5 points in the last 24 hours.

The odds

as of Oct 5, 08:42 UTC
  • Meta 20% +3.5
  • SpaceXAI 19% +2
  • Google 14% −10
  • Meituan 8.5% +0.5
  • DeepSeek 7% —
  • Microsoft 7% —
  • Z.ai 6.5% —
  • ByteDance 5.5% −3

Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.

Traded today$505
Traded in all$99K
Favourite, 7 days+14 pts

Meta, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Sep 27Oct 520%

Sep 28: 5.5% · Sep 29: 28% · Sep 30: 25% · Oct 1: 21% · Oct 2: 17% · Oct 3: 17% · Oct 4: 20% · Oct 5: 20%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
On September 12, 2026, Anthropic committed to giving embedded third-party evaluators permanent, ongoing, employee-level access to its AI models and training processes. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company announces a commitment to grant one or more third-party evaluators ongoing employee-level access to its systems, AI models, and training processes during development by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Arrangements limited to evaluating models before release will not qualify. Current agreements with the Center for AI Standards and Innovation (CAISI) to provide pre-deployment access to AI models will not qualify. A qualifying announcement must be made through the listed company's official channels or by an authorized representative acting in an official capacity. Statements that endorse third-party evaluation, describe it as under consideration, or express an intention to explore or discuss it will not qualify. A commitment made as part of a broader agreement with other companies or with a government will qualify, provided the listed company is a party to it and it otherwise meets the requirements above. If a qualifying announcement is made within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether the commitment is binding, is later modified or withdrawn, or is ever implemented. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed company; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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