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PolymarketCloses January 1, 2027

What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) leads at 14% (a long shot, about one in 7) on Polymarket, as of Oct 5, 08:42 UTC.

The odds

as of Oct 5, 08:42 UTC
  • Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) 14% —
  • ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) 14% —
  • Dilution of Iran's Uranium 13% +0.5
  • 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium 9.5% —
  • Iran Reconstruction Funding 8.5% —
  • Enriched Uranium Surrender 4.5% —

Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.

Traded today$4K
Traded in all$1.2M
Favourite, 7 days−1 pts

Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year), the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Sep 27Oct 514%

Sep 28: 18% · Sep 29: 17% · Sep 30: 16% · Oct 1: 14% · Oct 2: 14% · Oct 3: 14% · Oct 4: 14% · Oct 5: 14%

How it resolves

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