Moving
PolymarketCloses January 1, 2027

US strike on Colombia by...?

The market puts it at 14% — a long shot, about one in 7 — on Polymarket, as of Oct 5, 15:27 UTC.

The odds

as of Oct 5, 15:27 UTC
  • Chance of yes 14% —
Traded today$1K
Traded in all$2.2M
Yes, 7 days−3 pts

Yes, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Sep 27Oct 514%

Sep 28: 17% · Sep 29: 14% · Sep 30: 14% · Oct 1: 14% · Oct 2: 17% · Oct 3: 14% · Oct 4: 14% · Oct 5: 14%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Colombia is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify. Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
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