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PolymarketCloses January 1, 2027

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

The market puts it at 5.5% — a long shot, about one in 18 — on Polymarket, as of Oct 5, 08:42 UTC.

The odds

as of Oct 5, 08:42 UTC
  • Chance of yes 5.5% —
Traded today$10K
Traded in all$29.5M
Yes, 7 daysunch

Yes, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Sep 27Oct 56%

Sep 28: 5.5% · Sep 29: 5.5% · Sep 30: 5.5% · Oct 1: 5.5% · Oct 2: 5.5% · Oct 3: 5.5% · Oct 4: 5.5% · Oct 5: 5.5%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify. Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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