The odds
as of Oct 19, 09:34 UTC- Chance of yes 5.1% —
Traded today$2K
Traded in all$803K
Yes, 7 daysunch
Yes, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceOct 12: 4.7% · Oct 13: 5.6% · Oct 14: 4.6% · Oct 15: 4.7% · Oct 16: 5.1% · Oct 17: 5% · Oct 18: 5.2% · Oct 19: 5.1%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
See it on Polymarket ↗