Moving
Almazan Valiente vs Marti Pujolras Alex Marti Pujolras 90% ▲+46Iemmi vs Cataldi Leonardo Iemmi 92% ▲+42Montesinos Vilanova vs Pares Bergnes de las Casas Sofia Montesinos Vilanova 89% ▲+40Butterfield Bermuda Championship Winner Benjamin James 10% ▼−38NYC median asking rent in December 2026 Above $4,000 46% ▲+34ALCS MVP Winner Yandy Díaz 47% ▲+33Pro Football Next Coach Out Shane Steichen 33% ▲+31Who will perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show? Morgan Wallen 40% ▲+31Wright vs Sarritzu Michael Wright 81% ▲+31Oman vs Nepal Oman 18% ▼−27Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...? October 17 87% ▲+26Perez Contri vs Sakellaridis Sergi Perez Contri 96% ▲+26magic vs. PARIVISION PARIVISION 60% ▼−25"Housewife" by Tate McRae · Billboard Hot 100 rank… Rank 5 to 6 15% ▲+24
PolymarketCloses January 1, 2027

U.S. nuclear test by...?

The market puts it at 5.1% — a long shot, about one in 20 — on Polymarket, as of Oct 19, 09:34 UTC.

Yes 5.1%

The odds

as of Oct 19, 09:34 UTC
  • Chance of yes 5.1% —
Traded today$2K
Traded in all$803K
Yes, 7 daysunch

Yes, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Oct 11Oct 195%

Oct 12: 4.7% · Oct 13: 5.6% · Oct 14: 4.6% · Oct 15: 4.7% · Oct 16: 5.1% · Oct 17: 5% · Oct 18: 5.2% · Oct 19: 5.1%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
See it on Polymarket ↗

World

More markets like this

All →