Moving
Porras vs Sarksian Daniil Sarksian 84% ▲+52Oshawa, ON Mayoral Election Winner Tito-Dante Marimpietri 82% ▲+48Andrade Da Silva vs Echazu Lucas Andrade Da Silva 94% ▲+46Bergqvist Larsson vs Dunyon Bella Bergqvist Larsson 94% ▲+45Not A Squad Esports vs. Legion Not A Squad Esports 92% ▲+42Reco vs Sels Jelle Sels 89% ▲+42Baycurrent Classic: Top 20 Finishers Jacob Bridgeman 90% ▲+39Eritrea invades Ethiopia by...? October 31 47% ▲+38Al-Shamal vs. Al Duhail SC Al Duhail SC 81% ▲+34Pakistan military action against Yemen by...? October 31 42% ▲+34HJK Helsinki vs. Vaasan Palloseura HJK Helsinki 93% ▲+31Women's Pro Basketball Finals Qualifiers Golden State 84% ▲+31Baycurrent Classic End of Round 2 Leader Jacob Bridgeman 33% ▲+30ATP Shanghai Winner Sebastian Baez 64% ▲+30
PolymarketCloses July 1, 2027

Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by...?

June 30, 2027? leads at 78% (about 8 in ten) on Polymarket, as of Oct 8, 15:26 UTC. It's down 4.5 points in the last 24 hours.

June 30, 2027? 78% ▼ 4.5 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Oct 8, 15:26 UTC
  • June 30, 2027? 78% −4.5
  • March 31, 2027 78% +12

Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.

Traded today$861
Traded in all$54K
Favourite, 7 days−4.5 pts

June 30, 2027?, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Sep 30Oct 878%

Oct 1: 83% · Oct 2: 83% · Oct 3: 83% · Oct 4: 83% · Oct 5: 83% · Oct 6: 83% · Oct 7: 83% · Oct 8: 78%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that a Biologics License Application (BLA) for intismeran autogene has been submitted to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), or that the FDA has accepted such an application for review, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Intismeran autogene refers to the individualized neoantigen therapy developed by Moderna and Merck and evaluated in the Phase 3 INTerpath-001 trial (NCT05933577), also known as mRNA-4157 and V940, together with any brand, trade, or nonproprietary name later assigned to that product, as well as any renamed or modified version that the relevant company or the FDA identify as the same product or a direct continuation of the V940/mRNA-4157 program. A qualifying application must seek FDA licensure of intismeran autogene through a Biologics License Application (BLA). An original BLA or a resubmission of such a BLA following FDA action will qualify. The application may cover any indication. A qualifying announcement must come from the relevant company submitting the BLA, the FDA, or authorized representatives thereof. The submission must already have occurred at the time of the statement. A statement of intent, plan, guidance, or expected timing will not qualify. If the FDA grants approval of intismeran autogene on or before June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes", whether or not a submission was separately disclosed. The primary resolution source for this market will be official communications from the company submitting the BLA, the FDA, or authorized representatives thereof; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
See it on Polymarket ↗

Tech & science

More markets like this

All →