The odds
as of Nov 1, 10:14 UTC- Dune: Part Three 93% —
- Project Hail Mary 85% +6
- Godzilla Minus Zero 69% −9.7
- The Odyssey 69% +14
- Avengers: Doomsday 41% −5.5
- Spider-Man: Brand New Day 38% −16
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$12K
Traded in all$25K
Favourite, 7 days−2.6 pts
Dune: Part Three, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceOct 25: 95% · Oct 26: 74% · Oct 27: 96% · Oct 28: 96% · Oct 29: 90% · Oct 30: 86% · Oct 31: 93% · Nov 1: 93%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThe Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed film is nominated for the 99th Academy Award for Best Visual Effects. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Visual Effects when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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