The odds
as of Oct 9, 14:30 UTC- Chance of yes 8.5% —
Traded today$1K
Traded in all$121K
Yes, 7 daysunch
Yes, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceOct 2: 8.5% · Oct 3: 8.5% · Oct 4: 8.5% · Oct 5: 9% · Oct 6: 8.5% · Oct 7: 8.5% · Oct 8: 9.5% · Oct 9: 8.5%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve to "Yes" if a marketwide circuit breaker is triggered on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) at any time between November 7, 2025, and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A marketwide circuit breaker is defined as a trading halt that is initiated due to significant declines in the S&P 500 Index, specifically a Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 halt as per NYSE rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NYSE, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
See it on Polymarket ↗