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PolymarketCloses January 1, 2027

Kimi K4 released by…?

March 31, 2027 leads at 37% (about 4 in ten) on Polymarket, as of Oct 14, 13:23 UTC. It's up 26 points in the last 24 hours.

March 31, 2027 37% ▲ 26 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Oct 14, 13:23 UTC
  • March 31, 2027 37% +26
  • December 31, 2026 12% +2
  • October 31, 2026 5.6% +4.4

Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.

Traded today$5K
Traded in all$28K
Favourite, 7 days+19 pts

March 31, 2027, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Oct 6Oct 1437%

Oct 7: 19% · Oct 8: 9.9% · Oct 9: 8% · Oct 10: 8.7% · Oct 11: 8.7% · Oct 12: 6.4% · Oct 13: 11% · Oct 14: 37%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”. Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
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