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PolymarketCloses January 1, 2027

Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by...?

The market puts it at 5.5% — a long shot, about one in 18 — on Polymarket, as of Oct 21, 15:24 UTC. It's up 0.5 points in the last 24 hours.

Yes 5.5% ▲ 0.5 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Oct 21, 15:24 UTC
  • Chance of yes 5.5% +0.5
Traded today$970
Traded in all$300K
Yes, 7 days+0.5 pts

Yes, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Oct 13Oct 216%

Oct 14: 5% · Oct 15: 4.5% · Oct 16: 4.5% · Oct 17: 5% · Oct 18: 5% · Oct 19: 5% · Oct 20: 5% · Oct 21: 5.5%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
Ramzan Kadyrov is currently serving as the Head of the Chechen Republic, the highest political office of the Chechen Republic, a Republic of Russia. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ramzan Kadyrov ceases to be Head of the Chechen Republic for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Ramzan Kadyrov will be considered to cease being the Head of the Chechen Republic if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Head of the Chechen Republic within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Chechen Republic and the Russian Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
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