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PolymarketCloses January 1, 2027

Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?

The market puts it at 13% — a long shot, about one in 8 — on Polymarket, as of Oct 27, 22:16 UTC. It's up 6 points in the last 24 hours.

Yes 13% ▲ 6 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Oct 27, 22:16 UTC
  • Chance of yes 13% +6
Traded today$502
Traded in all$4.1M
Yes, 7 days+6.5 pts

Yes, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Oct 19Oct 2713%

Oct 20: 6% · Oct 21: 6% · Oct 22: 6% · Oct 23: 6% · Oct 24: 6% · Oct 25: 6.5% · Oct 26: 6.5% · Oct 27: 13%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
On October 9, Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/ This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Announcements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to "Yes"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to "Yes". The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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