The odds
as of Oct 5, 08:42 UTC- Chance of yes 3.5% —
Traded today$2K
Traded in all$1.4M
Yes, 7 days−0.7 pts
Yes, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceSep 28: 3.7% · Sep 29: 3.5% · Sep 30: 3.8% · Oct 1: 4% · Oct 2: 4% · Oct 3: 4% · Oct 4: 3.8% · Oct 5: 3.6%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
See it on Polymarket ↗