The odds
as of Oct 5, 13:33 UTC- 5.0% 5.5% +0.7
- 5.5% 2.4% —
- 6.0% <1% —
- 7.0% 1.5% —
- 10.0% 1.7% —
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$3K
Traded in all$551K
Favourite, 7 days+1 pts
5.0%, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceSep 28: 4.4% · Sep 29: 4.2% · Sep 30: 4.9% · Oct 1: 4.8% · Oct 2: 4.8% · Oct 3: 4.8% · Oct 4: 4.7% · Oct 5: 5.5%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
See it on Polymarket ↗