The odds
as of Oct 25, 05:22 UTC- Lionel Messi 65% +4.5
- Khvicha Kvaratskhelia 18% +4.5
- Rodri 8.2% —
- Michael Olise 6% −1.5
- Ousmane Dembélé 4.5% —
- Lamine Yamal 3.4% —
- Pau Cubarsi 3% −1
- Jude Bellingham 3% −1.3
Traded today$9K
Traded in all$31K
Favourite, 7 days+41 pts
Lionel Messi, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceOct 20: 55% · Oct 21: 66% · Oct 22: 73% · Oct 23: 72% · Oct 24: 65% · Oct 25: 65%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve according to the player who finishes in 5th place in the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or ranking.
The 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony is scheduled to take place in London on October 26, 2026.
If two or more players are tied for 5th place in the award ranking, resolution will follow France Football's (the award organizer, in partnership with UEFA) official ranking. Any players tied at the same placement with no further official distinction will be resolved alphabetically by name.
If no 2026 Ballon d'Or ranking is published by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from France Football and/or UEFA, including the official Ballon d'Or announcement; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
See it on Polymarket ↗