The odds
as of Oct 11, 18:29 UTC- Above 447,500 jobs 97% —
- Above 450,000 jobs 95% −1
- Above 452,500 jobs 92% —
- Above 455,000 jobs 64% —
- Above 457,500 jobs 42% —
- Above 460,000 jobs 13% −1
- Above 462,500 jobs 7% −3
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$14K
Traded in all$152K
Favourite, 7 daysunch
Above 447,500 jobs, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 4: 97% · Oct 5: 97% · Oct 6: 97% · Oct 7: 97% · Oct 8: 97% · Oct 9: 97% · Oct 10: 97% · Oct 11: 97%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above 447,500 jobs; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that Wisconsin's annual-average manufacturing employment for 2026 is above 447,500 jobs, then the market resolves to Yes. The underlying is the Wisconsin Manufacturing figure in BLS's Annual Average Table 1: Employees on nonfarm payrolls in states and selected areas by major industry, measured in thousands of jobs. Relevant BLS monthly series: SMS55000003000000001 — Wisconsin Manufacturing, All Employees. The officially published annual-average figure will be used rather than independently averaging monthly estimates.
Settlement sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics
See it on Kalshi ↗