The odds
as of Oct 26, 05:27 UTC- Above 3.7% 96% +1
- Above 3.8% 93% −3
- Above 3.9% 83% +10
- Above 4.0% 76% +5
- Above 4.1% 46% —
- Above 4.2% 18% −5
- Above 4.3% 8.5% —
- Above 4.4% 5% —
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$2K
Traded in all$26K
Favourite, 7 days+0.5 pts
Above 3.7%, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 19: 97% · Oct 20: 96% · Oct 21: 96% · Oct 22: 96% · Oct 23: 95% · Oct 25: 96%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above 3.7%; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 3.7% in November 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics
See it on Kalshi ↗