The odds
as of Oct 8, 22:24 UTC- Above 500000 in a single quarter 50% −4
- Above 750000 in a single quarter 3.5% —
- Above 1000000 in a single quarter 5.5% —
- Above 1500000 in a single quarter 3.5% −3
- Above 2000000 in a single quarter 1% —
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$543
Traded in all$108K
Favourite, 7 days−5.5 pts
Above 500000 in a single quarter, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 1: 56% · Oct 2: 49% · Oct 3: 42% · Oct 4: 43% · Oct 5: 48% · Oct 6: 50% · Oct 7: 49% · Oct 8: 50%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above 500000 in a single quarter; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Tesla delivers more than 500000 vehicles in a single quarter starting with Q1 2025 and before Q1 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement sources: Tesla
See it on Kalshi ↗