The odds
as of Nov 4, 01:16 UTC- At least 46 >99% +3
- At least 47 99% +4
- At least 48 99% +8
- At least 49 98% +9
- At least 50 95% +13
- At least 51 95% +15
- At least 52 89% +25
- At least 53 79% +17
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$419K
Traded in all$467K
Favourite, 7 days+2.5 pts
At least 46, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceNov 2: 98% · Nov 3: 99% · Nov 4: >99%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, At least 46; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the Democratic Party holds at least 46 seats in the U.S. Senate at the end of the day the new Congress first convenes after the November 3, 2026, general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Independent and unaffiliated members who caucus with Democrats will be included. Every voting seat in the Senate counts, including any seat not on the 2026 ballot. Vacant and disputed seats count toward no party.
Settlement sources: United States Congress
See it on Kalshi ↗