The odds
as of Oct 8, 17:24 UTC- Ariel Pakes 21% +3.5
- Susan Athey 13% —
- Richard Blundell 10% −6
- Robert Barro 8.5% +2
- Partha Dasgupta 6.5% −2
- Ernst Fehr 6.5% —
- Matthew Rabin 3.5% −2
- Emmanuel Saez 3.5% —
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$14K
Traded in all$27K
Favourite, 7 days−2 pts
Ariel Pakes, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 1: 23% · Oct 2: 24% · Oct 3: 25% · Oct 4: 25% · Oct 5: 38% · Oct 6: 20% · Oct 7: 20% · Oct 8: 21%
The same question on Polymarket
Two venues, two sets of traders, sometimes two slightly different rules — read both before comparing. Polymarket's number is as of Oct 8, 17:24 UTC.
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Ariel Pakes; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Ariel Pakes has won the 2026 Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement sources: Nobel Foundation
See it on Kalshi ↗