The odds
as of Oct 6, 01:39 UTC- At least ¥73,000 30% +1
- At least ¥80,000 24% —
- At least ¥74,000 13% +5
- At least ¥75,000 9% +3
- At least ¥76,000 6% −2
- At least ¥77,000 4% —
- At least ¥78,000 3% —
- At least ¥79,000 3% —
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$1K
Traded in all$28K
Favourite, 7 days+24 pts
At least ¥73,000, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 29: 6% · Sep 30: 6% · Oct 1: 4.5% · Oct 2: 10% · Oct 3: 20% · Oct 4: 20% · Oct 5: 28% · Oct 6: 21%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, At least ¥73,000; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the value of Nikkei 225 (NKY) is at least ¥73,000 from Jun 16, 2026 to Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves based on the value of the Nikkei 225 as reported by the Trading View, using the index's natively published level in its own currency and units; no currency conversion is applied. It is sufficient for the index to reach or exceed ¥73,000 at any single point during from Jun 16, 2026 to Dec 31, 2026 for the market to resolve to Yes — the level does not need to be sustained. If the index does not reach ¥73,000 at any point during from Jun 16, 2026 to Dec 31, 2026, the market resolves to No. Revisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value. If no data is available for from Jun 16, 2026 to Dec 31, 2026 by the Expiration Date, all strikes other than "No data" or "None" resolve to No. The index level is evaluated to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.
Settlement sources: Trading View
See it on Kalshi ↗