The odds
as of Oct 14, 23:21 UTC- 22,000 or below 6% —
- 22,200 or below 14% —
- 22,400 or below 28% +19
- 22,600 or below 18% +16
- 22,800 or below 16% +9
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$1K
Traded in all$43K
Favourite, 7 days+21 pts
22,400 or below, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 7: 6.5% · Oct 8: 15% · Oct 9: 15% · Oct 10: 14% · Oct 11: 7% · Oct 12: 8% · Oct 14: 28%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, 22,400 or below; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the Nasdaq 100 index value after issuance and before Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is below 22400.01, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will close on December 31, 2026. The market will expire at the sooner of the first release of the data, or one week after December 31, 2026. Pursuant to the Kalshi Rulebook, the Exchange has modified the Source Agency and Underlying for indices markets. See the rules for more information.
Settlement sources: For example, Google Finance
See it on Kalshi ↗