The odds
as of Nov 2, 18:20 UTC- Haley Stevens 39% +25
- Marjorie Taylor Greene 20% —
- Lisa Murkowski 13% −5
- Thomas Massie 10% +1
- John Fetterman 9.6% +0.6
- Don Bacon 2.9% —
- Henry Cuellar 2.8% —
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$6K
Traded in all$189K
Favourite, 7 days+25 pts
Haley Stevens, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceNov 1: 40% · Nov 2: 39%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Haley Stevens; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Haley Stevens leaves or announces that they are leaving the Democratic party before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. For Senators only: If, after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, Haley Stevens announces they will no longer caucus with the Democratic party or begins caucusing with a different party, the market also resolves to Yes. If Haley Stevens changes their official party registration from Democratic to another party or to independent/unaffiliated status, or announces they are no longer a member of the Democratic party, or is expelled from the Democratic party by official party action, then the market will resolve to Yes. For Senators only: If, after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, Haley Stevens announces they will no longer caucus with the Democratic party or begins caucusing with a different party, the market also resolves to Yes.
Settlement sources: The New York Times; the Associated Press; Reuters; Axios; Politico; Semafor; The Information; The Washington Post; The Wall Street Journal; ABC; CBS; CNN; Fox News; MSNBC; Office of the Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives; Bloomberg News; NBC; the Secretary of the Senate
See it on Kalshi ↗