The odds
as of Nov 3, 21:15 UTC- Chance of yes 51% +15
Traded today$548
Traded in all$44K
Yes, 7 days+3.5 pts
Yes, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 27: 48% · Oct 28: 45% · Oct 29: 45% · Oct 30: 44% · Oct 31: 43% · Nov 1: 36% · Nov 2: 48% · Nov 3: 52%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for wordIf Robert Downey Jr. reprises his role as Iron Man in a Marvel feature film by Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Archival footage does not count.
Settlement sources: Variety
See it on Kalshi ↗