The odds
as of Oct 8, 17:24 UTC- Before Jun 1, 2027 55% +3
- Before May 1, 2027 47% —
- Before Apr 1, 2027 31% —
- Before Mar 1, 2027 16% —
- Before Feb 1, 2027 7.5% −14
- Before Jan 1, 2027 4% —
- Before Dec 1, 2026 2.5% —
- Before Sep 1, 2026 1% —
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$6K
Traded in all$960K
Favourite, 7 days−4 pts
Before Jun 1, 2027, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 1: 59% · Oct 2: 57% · Oct 3: 57% · Oct 4: 50% · Oct 5: 54% · Oct 6: 54% · Oct 7: 53% · Oct 8: 55%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Before Jun 1, 2027; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If OpenAI confirms an IPO before Jun 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. An IPO is confirmed if 1) the SEC declares the company's Form S-1 effective OR 2) the IPO is priced OR 3) a securities exchange has assigned a ticker to it. As long as any of those events occur, the market will immediately resolve to Yes, even if the company does not start trading until after Jun 1, 2027.
Settlement sources: the New York Times; The Wall Street Journal; Bloomberg; BBC; ABC; Reuters; CNBC; Financial Times
See it on Kalshi ↗