The odds
as of Oct 7, 01:46 UTC- S&P 500 Total Return Index 82% +4
- Gold 21% −2
Traded today$585
Traded in all$28K
Favourite, 7 days+7 pts
S&P 500 Total Return Index, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 30: 74% · Oct 1: 77% · Oct 2: 77% · Oct 3: 76% · Oct 4: 77% · Oct 5: 78% · Oct 6: 78% · Oct 7: 82%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, S&P 500 Total Return Index; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If S&P 500 Total Return Index performs above Gold for the period of 2026 by 0.001% then the market resolves to Yes. Percent return is calculated from the official open price of each asset on January 2, 2026 (the first published trading day of the calendar year) and the official closing price on December 31, 2026. For example, if the S&P 500 Total Return Index opens at $5,800 on January 2, 2026 and at $6,380 on December 31, 2026, it will be concluded that the annual percentage return of the S&P 500 TR is +10.000%.
Settlement sources: Google Finance; Pyth
See it on Kalshi ↗