The odds
as of Nov 2, 18:20 UTC- 1 57% −4
- 2 36% +5
- Above 2 7% —
- 0 3% —
Traded today$2K
Traded in all$47K
Favourite, 7 days−4 pts
1, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 26: 62% · Oct 27: 62% · Oct 28: 64% · Oct 29: 61% · Oct 30: 62% · Oct 31: 60% · Nov 1: 61% · Nov 2: 57%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, 1; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Democrats win 1 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in South Carolina, then the market resolves to Yes. A seat is considered "won" when a candidate affiliated with the specified party has been declared elected by the relevant electoral authority and either: The time for legal challenges has expired Challenges have been resolved The member has taken their seat Party affiliation is determined by the party under whose banner the candidate was elected, regardless of subsequent changes. The count is determined when the new legislature takes their seats, even if some seats remain vacant or challenged. If the election is postponed beyond one year from the original date or cancelled entirely, the market resolves to the last fair market price. Only seats actually contested and filled are counted in partial elections. By-elections after the main election are included only if seated simultaneously with the rest of the legislature.
Settlement sources: South Carolina Election Commission
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