The odds
as of Oct 8, 03:32 UTC- Before 2027 28% −20
- Before December 18% —
- Before September 4% —
- Before November 3% −9
- Before October 1% —
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$524
Traded in all$48K
Favourite, 7 days−24 pts
Before 2027, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 1: 54% · Oct 2: 52% · Oct 3: 48% · Oct 4: 55% · Oct 5: 54% · Oct 6: 53% · Oct 7: 52% · Oct 8: 46%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Before 2027; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If xAI releases Grok 5 before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.
Settlement sources: xAI
See it on Kalshi ↗