The odds
as of Nov 1, 05:16 UTC- Chance of yes 6% −2.7
Traded today$8K
Traded in all$78K
Yes, 7 daysunch
Yes, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 25: 7% · Oct 26: 6.9% · Oct 27: 6.4% · Oct 28: 6.4% · Oct 29: 8.4% · Oct 30: 7.5% · Oct 31: 11% · Nov 1: 6.1%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for wordIf any federal or state court finds that widespread fraud, fraudulent conduct, or illegal manipulation of ballots or vote counts occurred in connection with the 2020 U.S. presidential election in one or more states before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. For clarity, the following do not satisfy this judgment criterion: findings of procedural irregularities, administrative errors, statutory violations related to election administration procedures (e.g., ballot curing deadlines, signature matching standards, observer access), or violations of election law that do not involve intentional fraud or deliberate manipulation of votes. Individual criminal prosecutions or guilty pleas for isolated acts of voter fraud (e.g., a single individual casting an illegal ballot) do not satisfy this criterion, even if the conduct occurred in connection with the 2020 election.
Settlement sources: PACER; The New York Times; the Associated Press; Reuters; Axios; Politico; The Washington Post; The Wall Street Journal; ABC; CBS; CNN; Fox News; MSNBC; Westlaw; LexisNexis; Justia; CourtListener; Court News Service; Law360; Bloomberg News; NBC; Bloomberg Law
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