The odds
as of Oct 26, 15:10 UTC- 2 30% −3.5
- 3 27% +3
- 0 21% −3
- 1 14% −7
- 4 3.5% —
- 5 1.5% —
Traded today$1K
Traded in all$25K
Favourite, 7 days+3 pts
2, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 19: 27% · Oct 20: 27% · Oct 21: 27% · Oct 22: 29% · Oct 23: 34% · Oct 24: 28% · Oct 25: 35% · Oct 26: 32%
The same question on Polymarket
Two venues, two sets of traders, sometimes two slightly different rules — read both before comparing. Polymarket's number is as of Oct 26, 15:10 UTC.
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, 2; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If there are exactly 2 dissenting votes at the next scheduled FOMC meeting (scheduled for Oct 28, 2026), then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement sources: the Federal Reserve
See it on Kalshi ↗