The odds
as of Oct 8, 19:23 UTC- Above $1000 13% +3
- Above $1100 10% +6
- Above $1200 3.5% +5
- Above $1300 7% —
- Above $1400 6% —
- Above $1500 9% —
- Above $1600 5% —
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$694
Traded in all$65K
Favourite, 7 days+5.5 pts
Above $1000, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 1: 7.5% · Oct 2: 7.5% · Oct 3: 12% · Oct 4: 12% · Oct 5: 13% · Oct 6: 11% · Oct 7: 11% · Oct 8: 14%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above $1000; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the average price of Urea (46-0-0) fertilizer in dollars per ton according to the United States Department of Agriculture’s Illinois Production Cost Reports is above $1000 after Issuance and before January 01, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement sources: USDA
See it on Kalshi ↗